Temperature GAYA 1 – 5
5_1  -65.000.000 -> 1950
data source:
The Royal Society, 2013, Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide, Phil Trans R Soc A 371: 20120294
Hansen J, Sato M, Russell G, Kharecha P. 2013,.
Surface temperature estimate for the past 65.5 Myr
Fig. 4
(a–c) Surface temperature estimate for the past 65.5 Myr, including an expanded time scale for
(b) the Pliocene and Pleistocene and
(c) the past 800. 000 years.

[-14dC_↓/nasa 0][nasa 0 = vs 1960 -1990 average]
5_2  -425.000 -> 1950
Ddata source::
IPCC AR3Third Assessment Report_climate change 2001: the scientific basis
Variations of temperature
Fig. 2.22./page 137
Variations of temperature, methane, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations derived from air trapped within ice cores from Antarctica.
(adapted from Sowers and Bender, 1995; Blunier et al., 1997; Fischer et al., 1999; Petit et al., 1999).

[0dC_↓↑/nasa 0] [used for reference only]
5_3  -2200 -> 1940
Ddata source::
Marcott et al., Science 2013
Science 08 Mar 2013: Vol. 339, Issue 6124, pp. 1198-1201, DOI: 10.1126/science.1228026
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
credit graph: Jos Hagelaars
Fig. 4
The temperature reconstruction of Shakun et al (green – shifted manually by 0.25 degrees) , of Marcott et al (blue), combined with the instrumental period data from HadCRUT4 (red) and the model average of IPCC projections for the A1B scenario up to 2100 (orange).
Because of the above-mentioned limitations of sediment cores, the new reconstruction does not reach the present but only goes to 1940.
Marcott“ By 2100, global average temperatures will probably be 5 to 12 standard deviations above the Holocene temperature mean.“

[-0.2dC_↑/nasa 0]
5_4.1  -9.000 -> 2000
data source:
Marcott et al., Science, 2013
Science 08 Mar 2013: Vol. 339, Issue 6124, pp. 1198-1201, DOI: 10.1126/science.1228026
Global temperature reconstruction
credit graph: Graph: Klaus Bitterman
Fig. 1
Blue curve: Global temperature reconstruction from proxy data of Marcott et al, Science 2013.
Shown here is the RegEM version – significant differences between the variants with different averaging methods arise only towards the end, where the number of proxy series decreases. This does not matter since the recent temperature evolution is well known from instrumental measurements, shown in red (global temperature from the instrumental HadCRU data).
[+0.2dC_↑/nasa 0]

5_4.2  0 -> 2000
data source:
Marcott et al., Science, 2013
Science 08 Mar 2013: Vol. 339, Issue 6124, pp. 1198-1201, DOI: 10.1126/science.1228026
credit graph: Graph: Klaus Bitterman
Global temperature reconstruction for the last 2000 years
Fig. 3
The last two thousand years from Figure 1, in comparison to the PAGES 2k reconstruction (green), which was recently described here in detail.
[+0.2dC_↑/nasa 0]
5_5  1880 -> 2016
data source:
NASA‘s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
Credit: Credit: NASA/GISS
temperature anomaly [degree celsius]
black: 5 year mean temperature
grey: annual mean temperature

0 = /nasa 0 [nasa 0 = vs 1960 -1990 average]
4_1  radiative forcing
is the difference between enegry that stays on earth [sunligh / insolation absorbed by the Earth] and energy radiated back to space.
Positive radiative forcing means Earth receives more incoming energy from sunlight than it radiates to space.
This net gain of energy will cause warming.
[The amount of radiation reflected by a surface is referred to as its albedo.]
4_2  climate sensitivity
data source:
Cambridge University Zero Carbon Society, Stephen Stretton, 2010 0307
is the temperature response of the whole climate to a forcing of greenhouse gases.

We know that there are two basic sorts of feedback processes going on in the climate.
Firstly we know that as the
_ temperature rises, relative humidity will stay roughly constant and thus
_absolute humidity will increase.

This leads to more water vapour in the air;
and water vapour is a strong greenhouse gas.
Higher temperatures also has an ambigous (to this author) effect on clouds.

The sum of all these atmospheric effects yields the ‘CHARNEY’ definition of the climate sensitivity which is
the equilibrium temperature rise from a doubling in CO2 concentrations;

assuming that the land albedo and carbon (CO2/Methane) sinks stay constant. (of course they don’t stay constant; we will come to this).

This has been argued to be close to

doubling of CO2 = 0.75°C/(W/m2)*
doubling of CO2 = 4W/m2
doubling of CO2 = 3°C [4 x 0.75]
[*A doubling of CO2 gives an increase in radiative forcing of about 4W/m2,
so multiply the C/(W/m2) by 4 to get the temperature change for doubling CO2]

Hansen et al. (1993) calculated the ice age forcing due to surface albedo change [reflection of energy] to be 3.5 C/(W/m2).
The total surface and atmospheric forcings led Hansen et al. (1993) to infer an equilibrium global climate sensitivity of 3C for doubled CO2 forcing, equivalent to 0.75 +/- 0.25 C/(W/m2).

This empirical climate sensitivity corresponds to the Charney (1979) definition of climate sensitivity, in which ‘fast feedback’ processes are allowed to operate, but long-lived feedbacks are fixed forcings

_Long-lived feedbacks:
atmospheric gases, ice sheet area, land area and vegetation cover are fixed forcings.

_Fast feedbacks include changes of water vapour, clouds, climate-driven aerosols, sea ice and snow cover.

This empirical result for the ‘Charney’ climate sensitivity agrees well with that obtained by climate models (IPCC 2001).
However, the empirical ‘error bar’ is smaller and, unlike the model result, the empirical climate sensitivity certainly incorporates all processes operating in the real world.

speed ot the Fast fedbacks:
50% of the climate response happens in 30 years and the rest takes 1000 years.
So we see in immediate terms (net of the cooling effect of aerosols) about 50% of the climate change that we are likely to see.

[...] Traditionally, ice-melting has been seen as a slow process. But the old models may not be correct; as was shown by record melt rates in the early 21st century.
Paleotological evidence points to times between the ice ages where sea levels have risen metres in a single decade.
Hansen suggests that the relative stability of our epoch may have been to do with the fact that there was a zone of comfort between the melting of the great Eurasian and North American icesheets and the melting of Greenland and West Antarctica

. [...] A cursory inspection of this graph of greenhouse gas forcing shows:

a) A very high correlation (suggesting a strong link between greenhouse gas concentrations and warming)
b) Episodes of very rapid temperature change and ice melt (over the time scale of decades – e.g. the ‘Younger Dryas’ event.)
c) a correlation between the two variables of about 3C/(W/m2)
Now the temperature shifts at the poles by about twice the global temperature change, we can imply a correlation of about 1.5C/(W/m2).
4_2.1  climate sensitivity
is the equilibrium temperature change in response to changes of the radiative forcing. [+- w/m2 earth].

Although climate sensitivity is usually used in the context of radiative forcing by carbon dioxide (CO2), it is thought of as
a general property of the climate system: the change in surface air temperature (ΔTs) following a unit change in radiative forcing (RF), and thus is expressed in units of °C/(W/m2).

The climate sensitivity specifically due to CO2 is often expressed as the temperature change in °C associated with a doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth‘s atmosphere.
PARIS climate agreement is an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealing with greenhouse gas emissions mitigation [Reduzierung], adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020.
September 2017, 195 UNFCCC members have signed the agreement [164 ratified it].
The contributions of the individual countries are called: NDCs - nationally determined contributions.
[CO2 emissions 2015: China 29.4%, US 14.3%, EEA 9.8%, India 6.8%, Russia 4.9%, Japan 3.5%, other 31.5%]

ARTICLE 3 requires them to be ambitious. Each further ambition should be more ambitious than the previous one, known as the principle of progression.
The specific climate goals are politically encouraged, rather than legally bound.
3.1.1 AIMS
A. Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;

B. Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse [nachteilig] impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience [Belastbarkeit] and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production;

C. Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.“ Countries furthermore aim to reach „global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible“.

3.1.2 START 2018 [-2025]
The global stocktake will kick off in 2018 with a facilitative dialogue, evaluation in 2025.
[parties will evaluate nearer-term goal and and the long-term goal of achieving net zero emissions after 2050+.]

The negotiators of the Agreement, however, stated that the NDCs and the 2 °C reduction target were insufficient;
instead, a 1.5 °C target is required, noting „with concern that the estimated aggregate greenhouse gas emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting from the intended nationally determined contributions do not fall within least-cost 2 °C scenarios but rather lead to a projected level of 55 gigatonnes in 2030“,
and recognizing furthermore „that much greater emission reduction efforts will be required in order to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 °C by reducing emissions to 40 gigatonnes or to 1.5 °C“.
[in the first half of 2016 average temperatures were about 1.3 °C [although not the sustained temperatures over the long term which the Agreement addresses] .
2_1  NOAA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
is an American scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce that focuses on the conditions of the oceans and the atmosphere.
2_1.1.1  -65.000.000 -> [0]
data source:
math of planet earth
Zachos, J., et al. 2008. Cenozoic Global Deep-Sea Stable Isotope Data. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2008-098. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.
Cenozoic Global Deep-Sea Stable Isotope Data

original data source:
Zachos, J., M. Pagani, L. Sloan, E. Thomas, and K. Billups. 2001. Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate 65 Ma to Present. Science, Vol. 292, No. 5517, pp. 686-693, 27 April 2001. DOI: 10.1126/science.1059412
The graph has been reconstructed from “proxy data” that are indicators of climate variability and stand-ins for temperature (e.g., isotope ratios in ice cores, fossil pollen, ocean sediments, and coral data).
Because of the diverse sources of proxy data, statistical methods are being used extensively to reconstruct paleoclimate temperature records like the one above.
2_1.1.2  -450.000 -> [0]
data source see. 2.3.1 SITE_
2_1.2  -650.000 -> [0]
data source:
wikicommons, Tomruen, 2011
Composite CO2 record (0-800 kyr BP)

original data source:
Science, 2011
Zachos, J., M. Pagani, L. Sloan, E. Thomas, and K. Billups. 2001. Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate 65 Ma to Present. Science, Vol. 292, No. 5517, pp. 686-693, 27 April 2001. DOI: 10.1126/science.1059412
2_2.1  -500.000.000 -> [0]
data source::
wikicommons, Glen Fergus
This shows estimates of global average surface air temperature over the ~540 My of the Phanerozoic Eon, since the first major proliferation of complex life forms on our planet.
A substantial achievement of the last 30 years of climate science has been the production of a large set of actual measurements of temperature history (from physical proxies), replacing much of the earlier geological induction (i.e. informed guesses).
The graph shows selected proxy temperature estimates, which are detailed below.
2_2.2  -5.000.000-> [0]
data source::
wikicommons, R. A. Rhode, 2005
Five Myr Climate Change
reconstruction of the past 5 million years of climate history, based on oxygen isotope fractionation (serving as a proxy for the total global mass of glacial ice sheets).
2_2.3  -450.000 -> [0]
data source::
wikicommons, R. A. Rhode
ice age temperature changes
This figure shows the Antarctic temperature changes during the last several glacial/interglacial cycles of the present ice age and a comparison to changes in global ice volume.
The first two curves shows local changes in temperature at two sites in Antarctica as derived from deuterium isotopic measurements (δD) on ice cores (EPICA Community Members 2004, Petit et al. 1999).
The final plot shows a reconstruction of global ice volume based on δ18O measurements on benthic foraminifera from a composite of globally distributed sediment cores and is scaled to match the scale of fluctuations in Antarctic temperature (Lisiecki and Raymo 2005).
2_3  IPPC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The IPPC is a scientific and intergovernmental body [United Nations] it is , dedicated to the task of providing the world with an objective, scientific view of climate change and its political and economic impacts.
2_3.0  IPPC . Report
PCC AR3_Third Assessment Report 2001_full
2_3.1  -1000 -> 1999
data source:
IPCC AR3, Third Assessment Report_climate change 2001:the science basis
chapter_Summary for Policymakers
Fig. 1b
Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction (blue) and instrumental data (red) from ade 1000 to 1999, adapted from Mann et al. (1999).
Smoother version of NH series (black), linear trend from AD 1000 to 1850 (purple-dashed) and two standard error limits (grey shaded) are shown.
Over both the last 140 years and 100 years, the best estimate is that the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C.
2_3.2  1860 - 2000
data source:
IPCC AR3, Third Assessment Report_climate change 2001:the science basis
chapter_Summary for Policymakers
Fig. 1a
Smoothed annual anomalies of combined land-surface air and sea surface temperatures (°C), 1861 to 2000, relative to 1961 to 1990, for the (c) Globe.
2_4  PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
is the official scientific journal of the
 National Academy of Sciences,
2_4.1  -2000 -> 2000
data source:
Hengyu Liu et al., Pnas, 2014
PNAS vol. 111 no. 34 > Zhengyu Liu, E3501–E3505
The Holocene temperature conundrum
Fig. 1
Evolution of the global surface temperature of the last 22 ka:
the reconstructions of M13 (1) (blue) after 11.3 ka and by Shakun et al. (11) (cyan) before 6.5 ka, the model annual mean temperature averaged over the global grid points (black), and the model seasonally biased temperature averaged over the proxy sites (red).
The Age of the Earth
is approximately 4.54 ± 0.05 billion years [10 ↑ 9].
This dating is based on evidence from radiometric age-dating of meteorite material and is consistent with the radiometric ages of the oldest-known terrestrial and lunar samples. [crystals of zircon from the Jack Hills of Western Australia are at least 4.4 billion years old.]
1_2   geological periods
/ 3 eras / 10 geologic periods_
3.5 / 2.500.000.000 -> 541.000.000

/ 3 eras /12 geological periods_
541.000.000 -> 0
years ago
[02.3.3 - 02.1.1]
1_2.1   Phanerozoic
02.3.3 Quaternary [2.588.000 –>
02.3.2 Neogene [23.000.000 –> 2.588.000]  
02.3.1 Paleogene [66.000.000 –> 23.000.000]  
02.2.3 Cretaceous [145.500.000 –> 66.000.000]  
02.2.2 Jurassic [20.100.000 –> 145.500.000]  
02.2.1 Triassic [252.000.000 –> 20.100.000]  
02.1.6 Permian [300.000.000 –> 252.000.000]  
02.1.5 Carboniferous [359.000.000 –> 300.000.000]  
02.1.4 Devonian [419.000.000 –> 359.000.000]  
02.1.3 Silurian [443.000.000 –> 419.000.000]  
02.1.2 Ordovician [541.000.000 –> 443.000.000]  
02.1.1 Cambrian [485.000.000 –> 541.000.000]  
October 7th, 2017